Price Prediction of Aglaonema Ornamental Plants Using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Algorithm

Abstract

The Aglaonema ornamental plant is a horticultural commodity with high economic value and promising prospects. It is well known for its attractive leaf variations, earning it the nickname "Queen of Leaves." However, unpredictable price fluctuations make investing in Aglaonema speculative and high-risk. This research aims to predict the price of Aglaonema over the next five years using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm. LSTM is considered superior to other algorithms in handling time series data. The model's performance was evaluated using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) on a weekly Aglaonema price dataset covering the period from January 2012 to December 2023. The results demonstrate that the LSTM algorithm can predict Aglaonema prices with high accuracy, as indicated by the following metrics: MSE: 0.005 – Represents the average squared difference between predicted and actual prices. A lower MSE indicates higher model accuracy. RMSE: 0.07-RMSE provides a more interpretable error measurement as it retains the same units as the original data. A low RMSE signifies that the model's predictions closely align with actual values. MAE: 0.04 – Measures the absolute average difference between predicted and actual prices. A lower MAE value reflects a smaller prediction error. Thus, this research makes a significant contribution to the development of a machine learning-based price prediction system for the ornamental plant industry.